🔮 Design Your Future Scenarios
1. Population Growth
Imagine the population of grows by:
2. People Per Household
New residents will form households of:
3. Average Household Density
New households will be built at a density of:
📊 Simulation Results
Key Findings
The chart below visualizes 10,000 possible futures. Red bars show scenarios that would exceed the neighborhood's available vacant land.
🎬 One Possible Future
🌳 What Could We Do With This Vacant Land?
Tree Planting Potential
Tree Density
How many trees per acre would you like to grow?
Tree Planting Results
Calculation: Based on the 90th percentile scenario, — acres of land would remain after development. At — trees per acre, this could support — trees.
About the Data
The population and vacant land data used in this tool is provided by the Northeast Ohio Community and Neighborhood Data for Organizing (NEOCANDO).
- Population Data: Compares the 2018 and 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates.
- Vacant Land Data: Reflects the count and acreage of vacant parcels identified in neighborhood surveys conducted in 2015 and 2023.
How Realistic Is This?
This simulation provides an optimistic picture. It's a useful tool for understanding potential land use, but it's important to consider the real-world assumptions we've made:
Assumption 1: New residents always live in new households.
In this model, every new person requires new construction. In reality, people move into existing vacant housing. Between 2018 and 2023, population and vacant land changes didn't always correlate as expected. Of the 11 neighborhoods that grew, 6 of them also saw an increase in vacant land, suggesting growth was absorbed by existing housing stock.
Assumption 2: No new vacant lots are created.
The model assumes the current supply of vacant land is fixed. In reality, the housing stock continues to deteriorate, and demolitions add new parcels to the vacant land inventory over time. According to the 2023 Property Survey, 5.7% (9,215) of parcels city-wide had vacant structures on them, with 52.5% (4,835) of those graded D or F, indicating a high likelihood of future demolition.
Population vs. Vacant Parcel Changes (2018-2023)
| Neighborhood | Parcel Change | Population Change |
|---|